“Red One,” featuring Chris Evans, Dwayne Johnson, and Lucy Liu, is reported to have cost a substantial $350 million to produce and promote, but it grossed just $34 million in North America during its opening weekend.
In addition to the $50 million it has earned from international markets since its premiere on November 6, the action-comedy, which centers on the head of North Pole security teaming up with a hacker to rescue Santa from kidnappers, has accumulated a total of $84 million globally.
Though this may seem underwhelming for a film starring major actors from blockbuster franchises, especially with upcoming competition from “Wicked,” “Gladiator 2,” and “Moana 2” during the holiday season, industry experts told that Amazon MGM may still see a profit from the movie and likely will not consider it a failure.
Among all non-IP films released this year, “Red One” earned the most in its opening weekend, surpassing titles like “If,” “Civil War,” and “Bob Marley: One Love.”
Rob Mitchell, Director of Theatrical Insights at Gower Street Analytics, explained that analysts had predicted “Red One” would gross around $34 million in its opening weekend, a figure similar to other films starring Johnson such as “Jungle Cruise,” “Rampage,” “Central Intelligence,” and “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle.”
It appears that Amazon MGM’s strategy from the outset was not to turn a profit at the box office. Instead, they hoped the theatrical release would create buzz ahead of its arrival on Amazon Prime Video.
Positive word of mouth could help attract new subscribers, increasing viewers who watch ads—a strategy that would allow Amazon MGM to recoup its investment in the film, according to Matthias Frey, head of the Department of Media, Culture, and Creative Industries at City, University of London.
The exact release date for “Red One” on Prime Video is still unknown, and since Amazon does not share specific viewership statistics for all of its content, the true performance of the film may remain unclear.
“If this bet does not pay off, there could be hesitation in the future about paying a star like Johnson $50 million for his involvement,” Frey noted.
It was reported that Johnson earned $30 million for his role in “Red One,” but could earn up to $50 million through profits.
Amazon doesn’t need to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in box office sales for “Red One” to be considered a success.
The film was originally set to premiere directly on Amazon Prime Video but Amazon MGM later decided on a theatrical release strategy.
Recently, Amazon, Netflix, and Apple TV+ have used short theatrical runs for their high-profile releases, like “Hit Man,” “Air,” and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” to create hype and make these films eligible for awards.
Kevin Wilson, head of theatrical distribution at Amazon MGM, explained that the theatrical release of “Red One” might help cover its marketing costs.
“We’re getting a massive marketing campaign that’s being paid for before the film gets to streaming,” he said.
While the box office performance has not met expectations, what could potentially harm Amazon more than a loss at the theaters is the perception that “Red One” flopped, as Prime Video serves as a tool to attract consumers to Amazon’s broader service offerings, explained Jezz Vernon, a London-based film producer and senior lecturer at the University of Exeter.
“If Prime Video is essentially an elaborate (and highly effective) branding exercise, then the logic requires pairing the service with positive stories, commercial success, and good critical responses,” he added.
There is still hope for “Red One” as the holiday season kicks into full gear.
The movie’s theatrical success will depend on whether cinemas continue to show it despite its perceived underperformance at the box office.
Additionally, if audiences anticipate that “Red One” will soon arrive on Amazon Prime Video around Christmas, they may opt to wait for its streaming release rather than seeing it in theaters.
